Benjamin Graham´s definition of
investing is:
”An investment
operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of a
principal and a satisfactory return”.
Investing
is not an exact science, as we can see from the definition. Different
components of the definition, promising safety of a principal, a
satisfactory return, and a thorough analysis are interwoven. It is
hard to achieve safety of a principal and a satisfactory return
without a thorough analysis. Safety of a principal means protecting
yourself from losses, which obey the reasonable probabilities. Graham
thought that the most important function of investing is keeping your
principal safe. Avoiding serious losses is the most important thing
for an investor. Graham preferred investing in bonds and stocks.
Company´s ability to make profit and its relation to its financial
responsibilities told Graham how safe were the investor´s principal.
Graham also thought that the paid price had to be reasonable. Graham
also thought that individual investments could deliver losses. This
is one reason why he favored diversification.
Graham
defined a satisfactory return as ”Any investment return that an
investor is willing to accept, when he functions with a reasonable
intelligence”. A satisfactory return depends on the security. An
intelligent investor cannot aim to reach for the moon. The historical
real stock market returns have been annually around 7 per cent on
average, when dividends are invested in stocks. All the other asset
classes have even lower average annual returns. When you think about
satisfactory returns, you have to consider historical returns too.
Unreasonable expectations for investment returns will eventually lead
to losses of principal.
The
safety of a principal and a satisfactory return are related to the
price you pay. This price is defined with a thorough analysis.
Defining this price is not an exact science. You need to define the
price range. For example, a price range between 15 and 20 dollars a
share. This is important. A thorough analysis means you need to think
about many variables. You cannot be sure about the future. You need
to have a range for the price. A thorough analysis means
investigating all the essential facts. I will get back to this
process after the next lesson.
I have
a question for you to think about: ”What kind of annual real
returns would be satisfactory for you in the next ten years? Think
about the historical 7% annual returns in stocks and consider what
you can get. Use any clues you can and want to find.
- Tommi
Taavila ©2018
No comments:
Post a Comment