Every day,
thousands of extremely intelligent, hard-working people work long
hours in Wall Street, London and other money centers of the world.
Most of them get mediocre investment returns. Their clients do even
worse, because they pay some part of their less than average returns
to these professionals. In worst case, these professionals create
weapons of financial mass destruction. The investment vehicles so
complicated that nobody can understand them, including their
creators. Majority of investing professionals belong to these
aforementioned, high paid groups. I don´t know if these facts are
tragic or scary. These people have enormous potential of doing good
things in some other area of expertise and then they waste it for
mediocre results in the financial markets.
A very small
minority of investment professionals have proven track record of
outsucceeding most of the professionals with significant margins for
at least over ten years and/or they have created universal and
timeless investing principles. They are the best skilled, most
knowledgeable, and wisest investors we have seen. These people do
things differently. There is no other possibility, because consensus
view is in the prices in financial markets. Betting against consensus
doesn´t mean you are right. There has to be a well thought reason to
do this. To get better probabilities of getting better than mediocre
investment returns, you need to understand how and why the best
investors do things differently. These lessons are for you to learn
these reasons.
There are
basically two reasons why most of the professionals do not get better
results for themselves and their clients. First, financial markets
work that way as a system. System in which most professionals work,
has a tendency of concentrating on the basis of consensus view. It is
probably right in the short term. And short-term success is what most
professionals are measured and paid for. Betting against consensus is
what gets you fired, unless you are right. Acceptable mediocrity is
therefore better for the professional. Second, the most important
attributes for the best investment success are certain character
traits. Most of these character traits work better in the long-term.
The most famous
and maybe the best investor in the history of the world, Warren
Buffett, defines investing as ”Transferring your current purchasing
power to someone else´s use, in order to have a probable bigger
purchasing power in the future”. All these lessons are for getting
better probability of increasing your purchasing power in the future.
All of these great investors have this goal or a goal for getting
better probability of not losing purchasing power. All the investors
have these goals. Principles and methods can be different. These
lessons are for increasing probabilities for the long-term investors.
They are unlikely to work in the short term.
These lessons are
about the investment principles of the wisest and most skilled
investors on earth and how to use these principles. I will cover
their investing mistakes too. And what I believe are their blind
spots in thinking about business and investing. Methods of using
principles may vary, but fundamental truths are the same. Most of the
situations occurring are just one of those. These situations have
repeated through history. Most of them are not completely similar,
but very close to each other. History doesn´t repeat, but it rhymes.
You can apply certain principles only when similarities of things
happening right now are very close to what happened before.
All the principles
are not for you. You are different compared to these investors. You
have to make a decision, whether individual principles are good match
for your values, character and abilities. I will try to help you by
giving my opinions to whom these principles can work for. Do not
accept any principle or my opinion about it without thinking
independently. Ask two questions:
- Does this principle or method match with my values, character and abilities?
- What should I do about it?
Nobody can use all
the principles. Choose with creat care. You don´t need to have the
same principles as these great investors. Have your own principles
and design them for your values, character and abilities. Whatever
you choose, operate with chosen principles. Use them, when you are
sure about the right timing.
These lessons are
trying to be designed to be as simple as possible, but no more
simpler. Investing is an activity, in which oversimplification, as
well as overcomplexification, lead to completely wrong answers. One
of the important intellectual characteristics of these great
investors is the ability to simplify complex things as much as
possible. It is one of the hardest things to do in life. These
lessons have no complex mathematical formulas. Simple calculations
are all you need. The amount of investing terms is kept minimal. They
are only used, when it is the only way of explaining things. These
lessons are not for the people who have started investing. Some of
the terms are not explained, because I assume you are aware of what
they mean. These lessons need independent thinking too. Without any
knowledge or experience about investing they may only confuse the
reader.
All the investors
I introduce have their own lessons. You should go through the lessons
investor by investor. I will post lessons mostly once a week. Going
through them too fast may cause you trouble in understanding them.
Each lesson requires lots of thinking. They contain one question to
think about as a homework. The exceptions are the introductions about
the investors. Lessons are in particular order for a reason. You
should go through them in the right order, which is the order I am
presenting them. I don´t recommend skipping any lessons, unless you
are sure they are not useful to you. Some of the lessons have more
advanced and detail-oriented information about the previous lessons.
Some of the lessons may seem shallow, but deeper understanding
requires thinking them thoroughly and independently.
These posts have
lessons at least from the next investors: Benjamin Graham, Philip A.
Fisher, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, John M. Templeton, Ray Dalio,
Jim Rogers, John C. Bogle. Possibly from Charlie Munger Carl Icahn
and William J. O´Neil. These lessons are mostly based on sources you
can find from here. I recommend you to check them yourself, depending
on the amount of freetime and interest you have. The best lessons are
from the investors themselves. There are no misinterpretations
between them and my understanding about the lessons.
Feedback is
welcome. I am not a native English speaker. Any feedback about the
language is very useful. And all the comments and feedback about the
lessons are welcome and useful too. You can send comments about the
posts or send some e-mail to tommisalmanack@mail.com.
©
Tommi Taavila 2018
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